Saturday, July 09, 2016 / by June Quilantang
Stocks are rallying and Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower after a much stronger than anticipated June Jobs Report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 287,000 job creations last month. As we said yesterday, this was the snap back we were looking for from the previous anemic report. And speaking of last month’s report, the already weak 38,000 figure was revised even lower to 11,000. The Report for April, on the other hand, was revised higher from 123,000 to 144,000. Combined, the previous two months saw revisions of -6,000. Since there is so much volatility month to month, a longer average is usually a better representation of the strength of the housing market. And the last three months have averaged job growth of 147,000…so the trend is certainly softer.
There are two reports, the Business Survey, where we get the headline number from, and the Household Survey, where the unemployment rate is derived from. The unemployment rate actually rose from 4.7% to 4.9%…but let’s see why. When looking at the Household Survey, it showed that there were only 67,000 jobs created in June. But there were also 414,000 people who entered the labor force, which is why the unemployment rate increased. The U-6 unemployment rate, which takes much more into consideration, improved from 9.7% to 9.6%.